What if Fidel dies?

What if? It is the most asked question to Cubans for many years now. The Cuban-Americans who live in Miami have said long ago that they long for that day. Their argument is that when Fidel passes, the Cuban people will be liberated and will greet with open arms capitalism and all those who left. Those who have left have done so for different reasons, but there is one particular group that is widely heard over the U.S. media. Those are the majority landlords and professionals who left Cuba once proclaimed socialist.

There is a Cuban reality that most people do not understand. If your information comes souly from the U.S. news networks and stories repeated from counterrevolutionaries, then you will have the opinion that Fidel is a tyrant and the Cuban people live in fear and backwardness. Some individuals retain that opinion even after traveling to Cuba. I remember particularly two young college students from Ohio whom I traveled with during 3rd U.S.-Cuba Youth Exchange. They were young vegans that when they told the waiter, “I don’t eat meat”, they were given rice that had been cooked with pork juice and served with chicken. They would then tell the waiter I don’t eat anything made from animals and they got a plate of rice and fish. After that encounter, they received a big salad with green beans and hardboiled eggs. They then were shocked to see houses that have not been painted and the appearance of the people according to U.S. standards were poor. They encountered missing toilet seats and school children asking tourists for pens, notebooks or gum. I advised them to pick a country in Latin America and see how the poor people live there. You will encounter children that don’t go to school and work. You will see homes made of wood with dirt floors and no running water—forget even a toilet. When a hurricane passes maybe one person will die in Cuba, while several thousands die in Haiti or Honduras due to mudslides. Why is that? I also told them that they need to get over their strict diet because in the Latino culture it is rude to not eat food that is given to you whether you like it or not. You eat what you have.

To return to the subject on hand: What will happen? Well, I’ve heard that question asked many times to Cubans touring the U.S. and also while I was in the island. The answer was always similar and which is also felt today in the island. [See article1, 2]

While Fidel would be deeply missed there is an entire new generation that was raised and educated under the revolution but did not live the actual battles. There battle has been the Battle of Ideas (1, 2). There is confidence in the new generation. While some things will remain, such as free education, healthcare, childcare and other needs provided by the state, there will be changes. There will not be changes like those Cubans who want to see an end to socialism. They see a return to the life and wealth they once pertained, including land (that has been long ago redistributed) and mansions (that are now apartment complexes). They know to achieve this they will have to defeat a people that will fight tooth and nail to maintain what is theirs.

What will happen when Fidel dies? There will definitely be a new step and new challenges facing the Cuban people and their revolution. While you will never encounter a population that is 100% happy with their government, the reason that Cuba remains socialist to this day is because the majority supports it values and its process, while some differences will always remain.

Will the trade embargo be lifted? I very much doubt it. Since the politics against the embargo was never anti-Castro, but anti-socialist revolution. If Fidel would have died and Cienfuegos was President the politics would not change. Bacardi, United Fruit Company, General Electric and Dole are still crying over their lost land and facilities that they once used to exploit the Cuban people and gained tremendous profit. The trade embargo will remain until the U.S. rulers’ faces tremendous lose in confidence that they feel a change in strategy is needed.

Impact on health in Cuba by U.S. embargo, Cuban health, other stats.

If you want to learn more about the history of Cuba and the revolution today, I suggest the following books, DVDs and music:

Books
The Cubans: Voices of Change
From the Escambray to the Congo
Women and the Cuban Revolution

Movies
Cuban Story
A Portrait of Teresa
Strawberry and Chocolate

Music
Silvio Rodriguez
Buena Vista Social Club
Carlos Puebla